Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
