Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
